A Global Revenue Framework for Value of Information Analyses

University of Sheffield - School of Health & Related Research

Researchers at Sheffield are leading experts in decision-analytic modelling and uncertainty analysis in health care. Expected Net Benefit Sampling (ENBS) methods have been promoted to determine trial designs for healthcare research. ENBS methods assess if a trial is worth undertaking if the expected value of the trial is greater than its cost.

ENBS methods have been adopted to value publicly funded trials but are not widely used in the pharmaceutical industry, despite the potential to improve the efficiency of drug development programmes. Previous approaches do not represent the way that the pharmaceutical industry values a new drug when making Research and Development (R&D) decisions. A structured study of how profit forecasts, R&D costs and other intangible factors interact is needed in order to implement a Global Revenue Framework (GRF) in ENBS calculations.

Collaboration between academia and industry seeks to bridge the gap between ENBS theory and real-world decisions in the pharmaceutical industry.

The study aims to answer the question “What should a GRF for value of information analyses from a pharmaceutical company comprise and can it be used to aid drug development programme design?”


The study will develop and pilot a new GRF for ENBS. The framework will be developed following a qualitative study of the pharmaceutical industry personnel (Phase 1) and a review of global revenue methods (Phase 2). The GRF will use advanced quantitative methods to pilot the method in a case study (Phase 3).

Phase 1: Qualitative study of decision making

Objective: To elucidate how the pharmaceutical industry value new drugs.

Method: A qualitative study of decision makers and forecasting experts within the pharmaceutical industry. In depth interviews will identify how profit forecasting models and other factors influence decision-makers during drug development.

Phase 2: Review of global revenue calculations

Objective: To survey global revenue calculations methods from the literature.

Method: A pragmatic review of global revenue calculations within the pharmaceutical industry and other industries.

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Northern England