PhD Studentship: Testing Antarctic Sea Level Pathways, NERC GW4+ DTP PhD studentship for September 2026 Entry

About the Partnership

This project is one of a number that are in competition for funding from the NERC Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP).  The GW4+ DTP consists of the Great Western Four alliance of the University of Bath, University of Bristol, Cardiff University and the University of Exeter plus five Research Organisation partners:  British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,  the Natural History Museum and Plymouth Marine Laboratory.  The partnership aims to provide a broad training in earth and environmental sciences, designed to train tomorrow’s leaders in earth and environmental science. For further details about the programme please see http://nercgw4plus.ac.uk/

For eligible successful applicants, the studentships comprises:

• An stipend for 3.5 years (currently £20,780 p.a. for 2026/27) in line with UK Research and Innovation rates
• Payment of university tuition fees
• The budget for project costs is £9,000 which can be used for computer, lab, and fieldwork costs necessary for you to conduct your research.
• There is also a conference budget of £2,000 and individual Training Budget of £1,000 for specialist training

Project Aims and Methods

Future sea level rise is highly uncertain, largely due to how the West Antarctic Ice Sheet responds to climate change. The IPCC highlights a split emerging in the 2070s: a lower-impact trajectory (<1 m rise by 2100) versus a higher-impact “storyline” (>1.5 m by 2100) (IPCC, 2021). Beyond 2100, divergence grows, with multi-meter rise possible, reaching ~15 m by 2300 under the higher storyline. Early warning is critical, as planning differs drastically between pathways (Palmer et al., 2024). The main uncertainty lies in poorly understood ice sheet processes, especially ice shelf vulnerability and runaway calving (Edwards et al., 2021; DeConto et al., 2021). Crucially, if the higher-impact trajectory unfolds, a tipping point may already have been crossed by the 2070s, and past work shows such retreat cannot be reversed even with rapid CO₂ drawdown.

This PhD will identify early signals by the 2030–2050s, targeting specific Antarctic glacier systems that are vulnerable to early retreat (Needell et al., pre-print). Although their direct sea level contribution is small, they can indicate which trajectory we are on. By modelling these regions under contrasting scenarios and searching for tipping-point behaviour, we can generate projections falsifiable within decades—supporting both adaptation strategies and targeted field observation.

Collaborative Partner

The Met Office will provide supervision time and hosting visits to the collaborative partner.

Useful recruitment links:  

For information relating to the research project please contact the supervisors via: e.gasson@exeter.ac.uk or M.Siegert@exeter.ac.uk 

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