PhD Studentship: CENTA 2027-B13 Health risks from individual and synergistic heat and air pollution under climate change

Extreme heat and air pollution are among the leading environmental threats to human health. They frequently occur together, yet their health impacts are still commonly assessed independently. This is important because simultaneous exposure may produce health effects greater than expected from either hazard alone. As climate change intensifies heat extremes and alters patterns of PM2.5 and ozone, understanding these interacting risks is increasingly important for climate adaptation, air-quality management and public-health protection.

Our recent analysis across England and Wales provides compelling evidence of this interaction. In London, when temperature and PM2.5 simultaneously exceeded their 97.5th percentiles, the relative risk of all-cause mortality reached 1.51, with a relative excess risk due to interaction of 0.33. Synergistic effects were particularly strong for respiratory mortality, while older adults and females showed greater susceptibility (Fig. 1). Importantly, applying London’s higher absolute PM2.5 thresholds to other regions revealed similar synergistic effects where sufficient co-exposure occurred, suggesting that interactions may become especially important once pollution exceeds critical concentrations.

These findings raise an urgent wider question: how important are synergistic heat–air-pollution health risks globally, and how will they change as the climate warms? Existing studies have examined historical interactions or projected future compound events, but a globally consistent framework linking observed synergistic mortality effects with future climate and air-pollution change is currently missing.

This studentship will address this gap through four linked objectives:

- Establish how heat, PM2.5 and ozone have individually and synergistically affected mortality across different regions and vulnerable populations.

- Determine how the frequency, intensity and geographical distribution of compound heat–air-pollution events will change under future climate and emission scenarios.

- Quantify future mortality attributable specifically to synergistic exposure and determine where conventional single-hazard assessments underestimate health risks.

- Evaluate the health benefits and economic implications of alternative climate and air-quality mitigation strategies.

By connecting observed health responses with emerging CMIP7 projections, the project will provide a global assessment of compound heat–air-pollution risks from the past through the twenty-first century. It will identify emerging hotspots and vulnerable populations and establish where integrated climate and air-quality interventions can deliver the greatest public-health benefits.

For further information on this project and details of how to apply to it please click the 'Apply' button above.

Further information on how to apply for a CENTA studentship can be found on the CENTA website: https://centa.ac.uk/apply/

Funding notes:

This project is offered through the CENTA3 DLA, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funding covers: annual stipend, tuition fees (at home-fee level), Research Training Support Grant.

Academic requirements: at least a 2:1 at UK BSc level or a pass at UK MSc level or equivalent.

International students are eligible for studentships to a maximum of 30% of the cohort. Funding does not cover any additional costs relating to moving or residing in the UK. International applicants must fulfil the international student entry requirements, including English language: https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgt/requirements-pgt/international/index.aspx.

References:

Tong et al (2026) ‘Higher air pollution amplifies mortality risks from extreme heat in England and Wales’. Under review in Nature Communications.

Stafoggia et al. (2023) ‘Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries’, Environment International, 181.

Turnock et al (2023) ‘The air pollution human health burden in different future scenarios that involve the mitigation of near-term climate forcers, climate and land-use’, GeoHealth, 7(8).

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