PhD Studentship: Fixing the North Atlantic storm track bias: high-resolution modelling for improved UK climate projections

The North Atlantic storm track drives changeable weather, ranging from rain-bringing depressions in autumn and winter to the blocking patterns that bring prolonged drought in spring and summer. In the last 12 months, the UK has experienced both: prolonged winter rainfall driving extreme flooding, and spring and summer drought. Despite this, almost every state-of-the-art climate model places the storm track too far equatorward and too zonal, a bias that has resisted decades of model development. Fixing this bias would significantly increase confidence in predictions of future UK climate, and the associated risks, as the latest Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (2026) highlights.

This project will quantify how much increased resolution over the storm track reduces this bias through enhanced air-sea coupling and latent heating (Schemm, JAMES, 2023). The researcher will use LFRic, the Met Office’s new state-of-the-art climate model, to embed local high-resolution grids over key parts of the North Atlantic, investigating how the strength of diabatic processes affects cyclone propagation and storm track biases. Complementary experiments with Isca, Exeter’s own simplified climate model, will isolate the role of diabatic heating more cleanly. The researcher will shape these experiments from the outset, leading directions of their own choosing, such as the storm track’s response to climate change or tropical SST changes.

Training will combine on-the-job supervision in model development, nested-grid configurations, large-dataset analysis and scientific writing with formal LFRic courses co-delivered by Sergeev (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/learning-lfric-a-new-modelling-system-for-weather-prediction-and-climate-projections), and courses in mid-latitude dynamics and atmospheric fluid dynamics from Catto, Thomson and Seviour. The studentship coincides with a funded Isca development project, letting the researcher work alongside experienced Research Software Engineers, enhancing technical training. Visits to Sergeev’s group at Bristol and work with Morcrette’s group at the Met Office will link the researcher to operational model development and an extensive early-career network.

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