PhD Studentship: Improved Extreme Climate Indices for Food Security Risk Analysis

Extreme weather is increasingly threatening UK food production, as shown vividly by 2026's wet winter followed by a record summer drought. Existing climate indices and process-based crop models poorly capture how such compound, rapidly-alternating extremes translate into yield and supply-chain shocks, weakening the evidence base for resilience and adaptation planning. This project asks: which climate indices and modelling approaches best explain observed UK crop losses from recent extremes, and how can these be improved to anticipate future risk?

The student will first benchmark existing extreme-event indices and process-based models (e.g. JULES-crop) against observed UK yield and production data, using 2026 as a key case study alongside other recent shock years. They will then develop improved indices, drawing on extreme value statistics to characterise compound and antecedent-conditions effects, and apply these across representative UK arable systems. Finally, they will combine these indices with climate projections to assess future risk and support adaptation planning, feeding findings back into climate model and observation development.

Training spans climate and crop-model data handling, extreme value and machine-learning methods, and scientific communication, via DLTP courses, Exeter's data science training, and close supervisory mentoring. The student will help shape the balance of observational, statistical and modelling work as findings emerge, with regular discussion of research direction and support to pursue their own ideas within the project's scope.

The project is co-developed with the Met Office (CASE partner: Falloon), whose Hadley Centre climate data, crop modelling expertise and food security service provide "on-the-job" training unavailable in academia; the student will spend substantial time working there. Co-supervision by Bebber (Biosciences) and Youngman (Mathematics and Statistics) at Exeter, alongside Falloon (Met Office and Bristol), brings together ecological, statistical and operational climate-service expertise. The student will benefit from interactions with Exeter's lively interdisciplinary research networks, including the Centre for Environmental Intelligence.

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