PhD Studentship : Low-latitude Atmospheric Rivers Meteorology, forecasting and flood risk

Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of strong vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT), conjuring the image of a river in the sky. This phenomenon has been studied extensively in relation to extreme rainfall in the United States, where they closely relate to the warm conveyor belts of extratropical storms (Dacre and Clark, 2025).

Atmospheric rivers are now receiving growing attention in the tropics, with for example recent analyses attributing extreme rainfall events and flooding in India moisture imported by atmospheric rivers (e.g. Mahto et al. 2023). So far, the dynamical drivers of tropical atmospheric rivers have received little attention, despite their association to high impact rainfall events such as those driving devastating floods in Chennai in 2015 (Lakshmi & Satyanarayana, 2019), Kerala in 2018 (Lyngwa & Nayak, 2021), and Pakistan in 2022 (Nanditha et al., 2023) alongside broader evidence that atmospheric rivers making landfall over India are linked to flooding (Mahto et al., 2023). Atmospheric rivers are poorly forecast on the subseasonal scale, and regions identified as having particularly poor skill include the Indian monsoon region, Madagascar, and Indonesia (DeFlorio et al., 2019).

There is therefore a pressing need to better understand the dynamics of tropical atmospheric rivers, their links to flooding, and their contribution to precipitation forecast skill and error. In this PhD project, we will analyse the dynamical processes driving tropical atmospheric rivers, their interactions with low-pressure systems such as monsoon lows and tropical cyclones, and the skill of the Met Office seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting ensemble in modelling and forecasting these processes. As datasets develop, there may also be opportunities to assess simulation skill of AI forecasts.

For further information on this project and details of how to apply to it please visit https://centa.ac.uk/studentship/2026-b12-low-latitude-atmospheric-rivers-meteorology-forecasting-and-flood-risk/

Further information on how to apply for a CENTA studentship can be found on the CENTA website: https://centa.ac.uk/apply/

Funding notes:
This project is offered through the CENTA3 DLA, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funding covers: annual stipend, tuition fees (at home-fee level), Research Training Support Grant.

Academic requirements: at least a 2:1 at UK BSc level or a pass at UK MSc level or equivalent.

Further information: https://centa.ac.uk/apply/

International students are eligible for studentships to a maximum of 30% of the cohort. Funding does not cover any additional costs relating to moving or residing in the UK. International applicants must fulfil the University of Birmingham’s international student entry requirements, including English language.  Further information: https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgt/requirements-pgt/international/index.aspx.

References:
Dacre, H. F., & Clark, P. A. (2025). A kinematic analysis of extratropical cyclones, warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1), 97.

DeFlorio et al (2019). Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill. Climate Dynamics, 52(5), 3039-3060.

Guan, B., & Waliser, D. E. (2024). A regionally refined quarter-degree global atmospheric rivers database based on ERA5. Scientific Data, 11(1), 440.

Guan et al (2023). Global application of the atmospheric river scale. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(3), e2022JD037180.

Knapp et al (2010). The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) unifying tropical cyclone data. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91(3), 363-376.

Lakshmi & Satyanarayana (2019). Influence of atmospheric rivers in the occurrence of devastating flood associated with extreme precipitation events over Chennai using different reanalysis data sets. Atmospheric Research, 215, 12-36.

Lyngwa & Nayak (2021). Atmospheric river linked to extreme rainfall events over Kerala in August 2018. Atmospheric Research, 253, 105488.

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