PhD Studentship: Near Real-Time Surveillance and Decision Support for CBRN and Major Incident Response

Rapid situational awareness is critical when health systems are overwhelmed by major incidents, including Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) events and large-scale mass casualty incidents. Delays in recognising emerging patterns of injury, illness, or system strain can lead to avoidable morbidity, mortality and inequitable outcomes, particularly in vulnerable populations.

Building on the RESPOND Theme within the NIHR Emergency Preparedness and Resilience HPRU, this PhD will develop and evaluate a near real-time surveillance and decision-support framework that integrates routinely collected health data streams to support operational response during major incidents. The central hypothesis is that timely integration of syndromic surveillance, emergency care activity and contextual data can improve the speed, accuracy and equity of response decisions during health emergencies.

The project will work in close partnership with UKHSA, leveraging established surveillance platforms and operational workflows. It will focus on three interlinked challenges: (i) latency and fragmentation of data during emergencies; (ii) translation of complex data into actionable intelligence for responders; and (iii) ensuring that surveillance-driven decisions do not exacerbate health inequalities.

Using mixed methods, the student will (a) map existing data flows and decision pathways used during recent incidents; (b) develop analytic approaches for near real-time signal detection and escalation; and (c) test the usability and perceived value of decision-support outputs with end users through simulation and scenario-based evaluation. Throughout, attention will be paid to ethical governance, public trust, and proportional use of data in crisis contexts.

The outputs will directly support UKHSA’s mandate to protect population health during emergencies, strengthen national preparedness, and enhance the scientific basis for rapid response decision-making. The work will also contribute generalisable methodological advances applicable across emergency preparedness and response settings.

For more information, please see: https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/centres-institutes/nihr-health-protection-research-unit-in-emergency-preparedness-and-response

Supervisors: Antonio Belli (University of Birmingham); Alex Elliot (UKHSA)

Funding notes:

Funding for this project is available for UK studentship fees (only UK fees will be paid, and any additional PhD fee costs where needed must be paid by the successful applicant). A yearly stipend based on the current UKRI rates, and a research training and support grant will also be available.

References:

1. UK Health Security Agency. Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Systems for Public Health Emergencies.
2. Cabinet Office. UK National Risk Register.
3. Elliot AJ et al. Syndromic surveillance: the next phase. Lancet Public Health.
4. Amlôt R et al. Behavioural and operational responses in public health emergencies

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