PhD Studentship - Storylines of Risk Assessment for Wind and Flood Impacts in a Post-Net Zero Climate in the UK

Explore the future of extreme weather in a post-net zero climate.

The UK is committed to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions, but important questions remain about how extreme weather risks may evolve after global temperatures stabilise. This project will investigate how the characteristics and impacts of extratropical cyclones, including damaging winds and associated flooding, may change in a post-net zero climate, and how these changes can be incorporated into climate-risk assessment frameworks.

Using simulations from the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) and related climate-model datasets, the PhD student will analyse changes in storm tracks, frequency, intensity, and their associated compound wind-flood hazards affecting the UK. A key aim will be to translate climate-model outputs into risk metrics through the development of storyline-based approaches that capture plausible future hazard pathways. The project will explore how risk assessments can better represent uncertainty, high-impact low-likelihood events, and compound hazards.

The student will have significant scope to shape the direction of the research. Potential areas include investigating physical mechanisms driving storm changes, developing novel risk assessment methodologies, linking storylines to impact models, or improving the communication of future climate risks to decision-makers.

The student will receive interdisciplinary training in climate dynamics, extreme-event attribution and analysis, climate modelling, environmental risk assessment, and advanced statistical and data-science techniques. Training will include developing and evaluating risk metrics, working with large climate datasets, and translating scientific evidence into actionable resilience information for stakeholders.

The project is led by Professor Jennifer Catto and Dr Matthew Priestley at the University of Exeter, in collaboration with Professor Peter Watson at the University of Bristol. Through a CASE partnership with JBA Risk Management, the student will gain experience in industry-standard catastrophe modelling, flood and climate-risk analysis, and decision-support applications, including opportunities for placement-based training.

Funding

For eligible students the studentship will cover home tuition fees plus an annual tax-free stipend.

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